Research & Methodology
Is Social Security Worth It? is built on a single simulator that compares the payroll taxes a worker would pay into Social Security against the same dollars invested in a defined-contribution (DC) account. This section documents how that model works, what it showed, how we tested it, and where we found — and fixed — our own mistakes.
Everything here reflects the August 2026 model build. These are point-in-time model outputs, not predictions; they may change as the model is revised. We think that provisionality is a feature, and the corrections log is where we keep ourselves honest about it.
Start here
- How the Model Works — what's compared, the assumptions, and how we validate against the SSA's own benchmarks.
- Headline Results & the Equity Cliff — the central finding, in one grid: the answer depends almost entirely on one decision.
The findings in depth
- Does the Withdrawal Rule Decide It? — closing the strongest objection from both directions.
- What Moves the Answer — and What Doesn't — retirement age, life expectancy, wage growth, demographics, and birth cohort.
- Population-Weighted Results — from single scenarios to the U.S. earnings distribution, reported by investment behavior.
How we tested it
- The Methods Audit — four engine defects we found, how we fixed them, and how we validated the corrected engine.
- Corrections & Retractions — the specific earlier findings we withdrew, dated, so nothing on this site reads as a permanent claim.
Background
- History of Social Security — 90 years from the 1935 Act to the looming 2032 trust fund shortfall, with the data on life expectancy, workers per beneficiary, average benefits, and payroll tax that frame today's challenge.
Reference
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Glossary — AIME, PIA, bend points, glidepath, Monte Carlo, and more.
- Data Sources & Citations
Educational purposes only — not financial, tax, or investment advice. Figures throughout reflect the August 2026 model build and are point-in-time outputs that may change in later versions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Your actual Social Security benefit is determined by the SSA from your verified earnings record at ssa.gov/myaccount.