Data Sources & Citations

All research on this site is generated from the Is Social Security Worth It? simulator. This page documents what feeds the model and what backs the numbers.

Model build

All figures currently published reflect the September 2026 model build, read directly from the live simulator. Figures are model outputs as of that build and may change in later versions; see Corrections & Retractions.

Social Security methodology and benchmarks

• Social Security Administration — benefit formula (wage-indexed top-35 earnings, PIA bend points, Full Retirement Age schedule), published replacement-rate benchmarks used to validate the model (~55% low earner, ~40% medium, 27–33% at the taxable maximum), and the National Average Wage Index. ssa.gov
• SSA taxable-maximum share anchor — approximately 8% of covered workers earn at or above the taxable maximum, used to calibrate the population weighting.
• 2026 taxable maximum: $176,100.

Earnings distribution

• U.S. Census Bureau — full-time year-round earnings, used to anchor income percentiles and the population-weighting median ($63,360, 2024). Historical income tables inform the earnings-history construction; the 2000 birth cohort's figures are projected.

Investment return series

• Per-tier historical return series (Treasuries/Money Market, U.S. Aggregate Bonds, and equity tiers), summarized by geometric mean for long-run compounding and each carrying a per-tier expense ratio (0.00%–0.61%). The bond series was corrected during the July 2026 audit to align with the U.S. Aggregate record.

Our datasets

Per-cell outputs behind the research pages are available as CSV companions:

• DCvsSSv3core.csv — the headline deterministic grid
• DCvsSSv3montecarlo.csv — Monte Carlo win counts
• DCvsSSv3withdrawal.csv — the withdrawal-rule tests
• DCvsSSv3substudies.csv — retirement age, life expectancy, wage growth, demographics, cohort
• DCvsSSv3population.csv — population-weighted results

Methods and corrections

• Methods Audit — the four defects found and fixed in July 2026, and the validation of the corrected engine.
• Corrections & Retractions — findings withdrawn or revised, with dates.

A note on reliability

Every figure is a model estimate, not a prediction or guarantee, and reflects a specific build on a specific date. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Your actual Social Security benefit is determined by the SSA from your verified earnings record at ssa.gov/myaccount.

Educational purposes only — not financial, tax, or investment advice.